Testing US resolve in the South China Sea – Firstpost

The ASEAN Summit held October 6-12 in Vientiane, Laos, saw intense exchanges between China, the United States and the Philippines, particularly on the South China Sea. While Chinese Premier Li Qiang blamed “external forces” without naming any countries for meddling in regional affairs, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the United States was concerned about the growing activities. China’s most dangerous and illegal activities in the disputed South China Sea. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr has complained to ASEAN leaders that his country continues to be subjected to Chinese bullying and intimidation. Earlier in the week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended the 19th India-ASEAN meeting and made a hard-hitting presentation on New Delhi’s Act East policy, while criticizing China for its expansionist policy in the South China Sea.

At a time when the West is preoccupied with the crises in Ukraine and the Middle East – the latter threatens to degenerate into regional war – and the United States is preoccupied with the presidential elections, China is testing the waters in the exclusive economic domain of the Philippines. (EEZ) in the South China Sea (called the West Philippine Sea by Filipinos). They have conducted several incursions against Philippine ships to gauge how far the United States will go in its support. Philippine ships in their EEZ have faced intimidation and bullying from Chinese coast guard vessels over the conflict at Thomas Shoal 2, where the Sierra Madera, a Philippine ship, has been stranded since 1999 to assert its sovereignty. The Chinese are also active and provocative against Japan in the East China Sea, having recently crossed the First Island Chain for the first time with an aircraft carrier and two warships.

Taiwan continues to face periodic challenges as China relentlessly violates the 2016 UNCLOS ruling that the Philippines secured regarding China’s illegal claims to the South China Sea under its nine-dash line.

When I spoke with Filipino security experts in Manila in June, clashes over the resupply of the Thomas Shoal 2 had reached a fever pitch, with some experts suggesting it might be a feint for Taiwan. The incident has sparked widespread concern in Manila, with strong calls to invoke the 1951 mutual defense agreement with the United States, which only comes into force in the event of an external armed attack. Clashes continued between the two sides and, despite ongoing talks and the establishment of a hotline, no compromise was reached.

On September 28, a Chinese navy missile boat reportedly fired laser beams at a Philippine Cessna patrol plane, while Philippine Coast Guard vessels continue to be pursued. The Chinese insist that resupply of the abandoned ship must be done under their supervision, and during a clash in mid-August, several Chinese ships blocked the passage of Philippine supplies for the stranded vessel.

The Chinese claimed the Philippine ship was illegally stranded on the controversial Thomas Shoal, which China claims ownership of as part of its claim to the South China Sea. China calls this area the Xianbin Reef, located 150 km west of the Philippine island of Palawan. China has repeatedly said it will enforce its maritime laws, including the use of firearms and arrest of violators, to defend its sovereignty and national interests.

In late August, Philippine Defense Minister Gilberto Teodoro firmly asserted that Thomas Shoal was a matter of sovereignty for the Philippines. According to the South China Morning Post (September 16), Admiral Samuel Paparo of the US Indo-Pacific Command, accompanied by General Romeo Brawner Jr., head of the Philippine Armed Forces, discussed a series of options as countermeasures to the tactics of the gray zone of China. He further said the United States was ready to escort Philippine ships in the South China Sea if hostilities between Beijing and Manila escalate. General Brawner also indicated that they would seek help from the United States if Chinese forces blocked food supplies, putting their soldiers in danger.

In June, I was asked if resupply by other means, such as helicopters, was feasible, and suggested discussing it with their American allies. Meanwhile, Admiral Paparo had a video call with Gen. Wu Yanan, commander of the PLA’s southern theater, who was scheduled to attend an international conference at the Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii in late September.

Philippine Defense Minister Teodoro recently took the possibility of escalation to the next level, warning that any attempt by China to tow the grounded missiles Sierra Madre would be considered an act of war, in which case the Philippines would expect its American ally to intervene. Hu Bo, director of the Beijing-based think tank South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative, said “towing the ship is not a good option and is not necessary.”

Meanwhile, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi discussed the issue in Beijing with US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. Wang warned that the United States must not use its bilateral treaties as an excuse to undermine China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, nor support or condone the Philippines’ actions, which Beijing considers violations. The impasse over the ship stranded on the disputed atoll remains unresolved. China will also likely oppose the deployment of a replacement ship, as the Philippines wants. Additionally, Beijing has expressed objections to the deployment of the US Typhoon cruise missile system in the Philippines.

On September 25, China launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the Pacific Ocean, marking the first such launch in 44 years. The missile, believed to be the Dong Feng 41 road vehicle, has a range of 12,000 km and was launched from Hainan Island. In Taipei, PLA expert Lin Ying-yu said: “It was to show the United States that China can reach their territory. ” He added that it also showed that China’s rocket forces are not weakened by the attrition of generals. Others suggested the launch was a diversion from last month’s submarine sinking incident.

The growing struggle for the Indo-Pacific will continue. On China’s National Day on October 1, President Xi Jinping reaffirmed that Taiwan is China’s sacred territory. In a Hudson Institute article, Japan’s new Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, called the Quad an “Asian NATO,” which is precisely what the Chinese have accused him of. However, Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar clarified that India does not share this view, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the Quad’s strategic intent.

The Malabar naval exercise, in which the Quad nations are participating, began on October 9 in the Indian Ocean. Before that, the armed forces of five countries – the United States, the Philippines, Australia, Japan and, for the first time, New Zealand – conducted a maritime exercise in the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of Philippines, while China held parallel exercises. elsewhere in the South China Sea (SCS). The SCS is claimed by several countries, including the Philippines, Indonesia, Brunei, Vietnam and Malaysia. China warned Malaysia to suspend oil and gas exploration in the region, to which Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim responded: “China is a great friend, but we must operate in our waters to ensure economic advantage , including oil drilling on our territory. » China continues to follow its “Blue Dragon” strategy of encroaching on the EEZs of ASEAN countries.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Laos to attend the India-ASEAN meeting, furthering Delhi’s Act East policy. A code of conduct for ASEAN countries regarding activities in the South China Sea (SCS) has been under discussion for two decades, but is far from being realized. The situation is akin to India’s Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China, which Beijing has refused to resolve as it would put an end to its gray zone tactics and ‘salami slicing’ strategies . India has expressed its unequivocal support for the Philippines, particularly following the June 17 clashes with the Chinese coast guard. India also sold BrahMos anti-ship missiles to Manila, making the Philippines the first country to acquire them. Last month, Indian Defense Secretary Giridhar Aramane visited Manila for the fifth Joint Defense Dialogue.

It’s hard to swallow that the Philippines is a feint for Taiwan when there is a “lame” President Biden in power. However, there remains a possibility that Thomas Shoal 2 could end up in Chinese possession, like what happened at Mischief Reef, just 24 km to the north, in 2012.

The author is the former GOC IPKF South of Sri Lanka and founding member of the Defense Planning Staff, now the Integrated Defense Staff of the Ministry of Defence. The opinions expressed in the article above are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Firstpost.