Why is Manila trying to sow discord at the ASEAN summit?

Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

At the ASEAN Summit on Thursday, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr delivered a distorted speech on the South China Sea issue. He stressed that the overall situation in the South China Sea “remains tense”, saying his country is “subject to acts of harassment and intimidation”. He urged all ASEAN member states “not to turn a blind eye to aggressive, coercive and illegal actions by an external power against any ASEAN member state”, saying that “silence in the face of such violations diminishes ASEAN.”

In recent years, the South China Sea has not been calm. However, constantly highlighting a “tense” atmosphere within a platform aimed at discussing major regional issues does not reflect the facts. In reality, there have been no restrictions on the freedom of navigation of civilian vessels, nor have there been any armed conflicts.

The incidents in the South China Sea are mainly caused by the Philippines’ repeated provocations in these waters with the support of the United States. If one were to examine the facts, it would be obvious that the role of the Philippines is not as “innocent” as it claims.

Since 2022, the new Philippine government led by Marcos has adopted a pro-US policy, willingly becoming a pawn in the US strategy to contain China by repeatedly sending ships to provoke actions in the waters surrounding China. The pro-US diplomacy of the current Philippine government is what is truly weakening ASEAN. It is well known that ASEAN generally pursues a policy of great power balancing, avoiding taking sides in great power competition. This policy of balance has been recognized by major powers and is crucial for ASEAN to maintain its central role in regional affairs.

However, since 2022, the Philippines has strengthened its alliance with the United States and its allies. In essence, this strengthening of alliances or the formation of quasi-alliances constitutes a clear shift towards a pro-US stance and a break with ASEAN’s balancing policy.

Regarding the Code of Conduct (COC) negotiations in the South China Sea, the Philippines tried to portray itself as a victim by emphasizing that “there should be more urgency in the pace of the Code of Conduct negotiations ASEAN-China”. In fact, without the Philippines’ provocations over the past year, the negotiating atmosphere would likely have been more relaxed and cordial.

Without the Philippines’ stubborn attempt to challenge the so-called arbitration award in the South China Sea, China and ASEAN would have had a better chance of reaching consensus on more terms. Had Manila not sought to establish a separate code of conduct with some relevant countries in the South China Sea, political trust between China and ASEAN could have been further strengthened. The Philippines is therefore effectively the biggest disruptor in the COC negotiation process.

The annual ASEAN Summit is a major event for regional cooperation. ASEAN’s ability to bring together powers like China, the United States, Japan, Russia, India and Australia is rooted in a spirit of cooperation aimed at bridging differences and building consensus. The announcement of the substantial conclusion of negotiations on upgrading the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (FTA) Version 3.0, as well as a joint statement between the two sides, vividly demonstrates this spirit of cooperation.

Clearly, the Philippine side’s provocative remarks during the ASEAN Summit were not aimed at fostering cooperation or building consensus. Rather, its goal was to stir up divisions and create divisions. The immediate reason for this situation could stem from the recent failure of the Philippines when its coast guard ship deliberately “ran aground” in Xianbin Jiao, inciting it to tarnish China’s image and distort facts in the goal of gaining political and diplomatic leverage while crafting a narrative for China. future provocations.

In the long run, this is simply a geopolitical performance of collusion by the Philippines with the United States to exacerbate “tensions” in the South China Sea and create political divisions within ASEAN. This corresponds to the need for the United States to strengthen its military presence in the South China Sea and maintain its dominance in Asia, which fundamentally contradicts the interests of ASEAN countries.

The author is vice president of the Shanghai Institutes of International Studies. [email protected]